Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2022 14:03:19 GMT
I am not an economist but after years of studying Keynesian, Austrian Chicago School, and investing in stock and property, I feel I am qualified to explain what is happening to our economy right now and where it is heading. I created my own school of economics - "Confucian Capitalism", which I will later write a book about but for now, let's get started with the basics.
First of all, I will not use the word "recession" because it is nothing more than a euphemism for depression as depression is just too...depression. But we do not need to be scared of another Great Depression if we understand what it is, why, and how it happens. As they say- "Knowledge is power".
So let's started.
The goal of this post is to inform and educate and will be unbiased. I am attempting to help others wade through all the information with regard to our economy and at the same time, point out some of the positives that are associated with depression.
Depressions are not new, they are not all bad and to most economists, they are necessary. Talk about depression is everywhere you look these days - MSM, websites, and social media - most of it however is just alarmist talk created to make news and not at all educational. Understanding the mechanics of what is going on is important for everyone from the investor to the prepper to know. With the proper information, you will have a better chance of achieving your desired outcomes.
What are depressions and are they normal?
The typical but somewhat misleading information is - a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
A simpler and better way to say it is - Finacial pain for the economy (people and businesses).
Here is a chart to take a look at:
What the above chart show is the history of depressions going back to about 1950. What I want you to see here is that depressions are not new and happen around every 6 to 10 years. It just so happens that we haven't really had one if you exclude the did from 2020 the Covid pandemic - meaning not since the 2008 financial crisis. Once again the point of the chart is to show you that depressions are nothing new and common. if you are above 50, you have lived through more than 10 of them and are a normal part of our economic cycle.
Supply and Demand 101
All economies have a supply side and a demand side. When demand rises and supply falls and prices increase. When demand falls, supply rises the prices fall too. Simple.
Right now what we are seeing is the demand side growing faster than the supply side can keep up with this demand. This causes prices to rise VERY rapidly. All of us are seeing this in our personal lives. Issues that are currently impacting the supply side of the economy are really the problem at the moment. But what is affecting it?
Issues that are currently impacting the supply side of the economy
Supply chains caused by the pandemic.
So in the above chart, you can see supply chain disruptions making a comeback. The chart shows the years 2019. You can see the Eurozone, The U.S., China, and emerging markets and you can see which markets were most disrupted. The scale at the left-hand side goes from negative 10 to about 80. What is pointed out is as we went into 2020 and 2021. (2022 is not on here but it continues to rise in the U.S. and is very disruptive in the supply chain perspective.) Let's add to that the below chart - "Inventory to Sales Ratios"-
What this show is that across retailers in total businesses is a decline in inventory over time and what you can see is going back to 1992, this is the lowest we have seen in the inventory to sales ratio.
So currently our supply cannot keep up with the economic demand. This has caused our economy to enter a state which economists refer to as "Over Hearing". Something you have probably heard on the news channels but didn't quite know what it means.
Issues currently impacting the supply side of the economy
- Lack of available workers "HELP WANTED". (I won't get into social welfare or the minimum wage in this thread.)
You have seen the "HELP WANTED" signs everywhere. It seems like every retailer or restaurant you go to has an issue with a lack of workers.
So what happened was recently we experienced what is known as "The Perfect Storm"- We had the impact, the pandemic, the stagnant population growth, low labor for participation, reduced immigration and that equaled soaring job openings.
So if you look up at the year 2017. you can see that there were 5.9 million unfulfilled job openings. Going forward to April of 2020, you can see that declined to 4.7 million but in February 2022 we are now at 11.3 million and rising. The labor supply is flat, and working population growth is griding to a halt with an annual average growth rate of just .02%
What are some other issues impacting the supply side of the economy?
- High fuel prices.
The gray areas you see in the chart above are depressionary periods and what we can see is that if we take a look back to the 1970s, we can see that there are both lows and highs in fuel prices. Most oftentimes, if the fuel price goes over $104 for Brent crude oil, typically a depression will follow or during the middle of a depression, as you can see from the chart and at the end, you can see that we are currently in that situation (actually a little bit further ahead). And what this leads to is -
High Inflation:
Certainly, a lot of us have heard this - inflation is the rate increase in prices over a given period of time but most do not really keep track of it. The above is a chart of inflation and what it is showing is the year-over-year percent change in the consumer price index (CPI) and it tracks consumer spending. What you can see is through the time period of 1970- 1980, there were high-interest rates and a period which was known as STAGFLATION. You can see that spike circle in yellow which represents massive inflation and hasn't been seen at that level of inflation till about right now. So 2 months ago, we see inflation increase by 8.3% on average but higher in many areas. So this is a rapid spike in inflation since the pandemic which was fed by the issues I covered above.
Inflation and DepressionS
So the above is a measure of CPI and what you can see when CPI spikes It almost always happens in a depressionary period o just before a depressionary period. You can see that we are spiking right now.
I talked about earlier that when low unemployment rates mean there is a shortage of available (or willing) workers to hire. When companies cannot find workers to hire they must increase wages in order to attract and keep workers. So let's take a look at this:
Above is a chart and as it says- " US wages for the lowest earners are growing at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis hit"
Now, this is a chart of monthly median wage growth by quartile and what we can see here is that the lowest quartile has had a significant spike in its wage growth. What we are seeing is massive wage growth and again, you always see these spikes in wage growth before a depressionary period. Just as now, you can see the slike in wage growth just before the 2008 financial crisis.
When workers are paid more money, they tend to dump that money into the economy (instead of paying off debt) by buying goods and services As seen with the Stimulus packages starting in 2020. This did not stimulate the economy but actually kept inflation high (supply and demand read above).
The chart above is not up to date but the closest I could find and serves my purposes fine as it shows us where we were pre-pandemic, to see exactly how much consumption is now taking place with goods, services, and total consumption. You can see the spike. You can clearly see the amount of consumption taking place in the USA.
Here is a chart on consumer spending. So you see the growth that started happening in 2012/2013 as things were progressing and moving forward at a fairly regular pace. Then you see an incredible dip in consumer spending during the pandemic due to such things as, lockdowns, lost jobs, and businesses going under. But now you see s sudden rapid spike that is not only back to normal but is getting even higher than ever!
So again, workers are getting paid more money and they going to dump that money into the economy by buying goods and services, as I said. This increased spending by consumers leads to an increase in demand for goods and services.
So it works like this:
Higher wages, lead to higher prices, higher prices lead to higher wages and higher wages lead back to higher prices. This is an unhealthy feedback look that ultimately contributes to hyperinflation. Not good at all.
WHAT IS QUANTITATIVE EASING (QE) AND IT'S IMPACT ON INTEREST RATES?
Quantitative Easing is what was put in place at the end of the last financial crisis and is in large part why we just experienced this massive move up in the equities and housing markets. What this is and why it occurs is when the Federal Reserve buys long-term securities in an effort to boost the economy, adding money to the money supply.
While increasing the money supply QE lowers long-term interest rates. So as the money supply is increased the interest rates are lowered. What it does is makes it easier for banks to loan and for people to borrow money. This in theory stimulates growth in the economy and is what the Fed has been doing for over a decade now.
So in addition to this, the Fed (also known as the central bank) controls these interest rates.
Lower interest rates encourage borrowing, money printing, and therefore expansion. But it also feeds inflation...
The above is a chart on the effect of increases on interest rates a from a personal level and also on an economic level.
Inflation is rising too fast!
Currently, the Fed is rapidly raising interest rates to fight inflation. Additionally, QE, since we have been experiencing since the financial crisis has been reversed and we are now participating in QT (Quantitative Tightening), which is the inverse of QE and is taking money out of the supply
On a personal level, this increases the cost of borrowing, it improves the return for savers thereby making cash more valuable. This creates higher mortgage rates, and higher interest payments which make it harder to finance a house, it increases the cost of bank loans such as personal and business loans and banks are more willing to lend because they will make more money but also reduces the confidence of borrowers and typically does.
In the economy, the currency will appreciate and that is why we are seeing the USD rising. This makes exports less competitive and imports cheaper. Again, no good in the long term.
What it will serve to do is lower inflation as we have raised interest rates but the economic growth will slow when we raise interest rates. Unemployment will typically rise and the government will see rising borrowing costs.
Currently, Jerome Powell (Chairman of the Fed) is trying to tip toe off the edge of a financial meltdown (depression).
His goal and thus the goal of the fed is to raise interest rates enough to stop the growth of inflation and at the same time, he cannot raise them too much, or else it will push our economy into a deflationary depression. This is what the economists called a "soft landing" and the fed calls a "happy ending".
This is the equivalent of walking one giant tightrope. Additionally, something to be taken note of is that except for the year 1994, all historical attempts to achieve a "soft landing" or "happy ending" have failed. So the desperate effort the fed is trying to do now historically has never worked.
What are some historically accurate predictions of depressions?
One of them is the Yield Curve Inversion as seen above.
When the Yield Curve inverts, it tends to mean that the bond market expects yields to be higher in the short term than in the long term. This is based on the Fed hiking rates to control inflation and then burning them back down after the inflation comes down.
So in the above chart, times when the Yield curve is inverted - the Yield Curve inverts when the blue line goes below the black line. What you see is the Yield Curve inversion almost always precedes a time of depression. The gray areas are times of depression. So as you can see inverting, depression, inverting, depression, and so on. Right now we are in a period of inversion, once again.
THE ISM PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (pmi)
The ISM purchasing managers index (PMI), shown above, is a way to measure the manufacturing in the U.S. Historically in a strong economy, the ISM PMI will have a value of over 50. If the value approaches 50, this shows a decline in manufacturing and likely a near-term depression.
So as you can see in the past when we had the tech boom and bust and we saw this like go below 50 and against during the 2008 depression. you see the slide from the pandemic but right now it is relatively stable so we have not yet seen the decline ins the ISM PMI. but it is starting to stagnate and I already talked about fuel prices. high fuel prices almost always precede a depression. One of the biggest consumer costs is transportation and there is a high demand for it, always. But when that cost becomes higher than food then this marks a huge, huge depression coming. Ask yourself if last month you spend more money on food or gas.
EMPLOYEMENT/UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Another historically accurate measure is employment rates.
When unemployment rates drop below the 5% make(red dotted line), it is a sign of a very strong economy. Typically. we have very strong economies that create bubbles in certain asset classes though they allow our economy to become imbalanced and that unemployment rate will do just before a depression so you can see by the chart that practically all dips occur just before a depression. And now we have dipped again past the threshold. We will go into q big depression.
THE VALUE OF DEPRESSIONS
So now let's talk about the value of depression.
One of the good things after the economy depresses from a massive uptick is a return to "fair" value. This gives investors such as you and me, the opportunity to own assets such as homes, equities, collectibles, really just about everything at a much lower cost basis than before the depression which gives investors much more room for capital appreciation, also known as - a movement to the upside. It gives us a lot more room for capital appreciation because we are buying when the price is low. And the objective is to hold the asset until the next bull run or inflationary period when we are able to participate in capital appreciation in our asset class (as I am doing now.)
The above chart is the S&P 500 index. The vertical likes are depressionary periods and you can see that at the end of the depressions or during the depressions are very good buying points for long term holds and you can see when you buy during these times you will always see Captial appreciation when given enough time. This is especially true of the housing market if buy a house and want to see its value appreciate to the upside.
So the economy is like most things - it seeks balance. Most understand that depressions can cause unemployment, financial losses, lower living standards, burdens on public finances as well as declines in a retirement fund, But with all that said, depressions also offer us some benefits:
- They rectify imbalances which clear the path for future growth.
- They end the miscalculation of money into certain asset classes (bubbles).
- They provide great opportunities for investors with long-term point of view.
WHAT ARE NOW AND WHAT TO WATCH
We have:
- Record low unemployment, record-high gas prices, record-high inflation, and are coming from record low-interest rates. We have also seen a bull market in equities and housing for the last 13 years, Lastly, in March 2022 we saw the Yield Curve invert.
WHAT WE DONT HAVE AND WHAT TO WATCH
- We don't know how high interest rates must go to stop inflation.
- We don't yet have a rising unemployment rate.
- We don't yet have bad company earnings.
In conclusion. I have given you a basic lesson on the evils of central banking how fragile and volatile they are, and how they manipulate our economy and play with interest rates for money they do not have and are the ones that actually cause depressions and inflation. They do it through fraud and deception. However, it is not their fault, it is yours. They are banking (pun intended) on your being too stupid to figure out how their tricks work.
In the next post, I will talk about alternative monetary, banking, and economic policies that are not only more robust to depression and inflation but more ethical and do not use currency or interest rate manipulation, and do not rely on statistics or mathematics to trick people.
First of all, I will not use the word "recession" because it is nothing more than a euphemism for depression as depression is just too...depression. But we do not need to be scared of another Great Depression if we understand what it is, why, and how it happens. As they say- "Knowledge is power".
So let's started.
The goal of this post is to inform and educate and will be unbiased. I am attempting to help others wade through all the information with regard to our economy and at the same time, point out some of the positives that are associated with depression.
Depressions are not new, they are not all bad and to most economists, they are necessary. Talk about depression is everywhere you look these days - MSM, websites, and social media - most of it however is just alarmist talk created to make news and not at all educational. Understanding the mechanics of what is going on is important for everyone from the investor to the prepper to know. With the proper information, you will have a better chance of achieving your desired outcomes.
What are depressions and are they normal?
The typical but somewhat misleading information is - a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
A simpler and better way to say it is - Finacial pain for the economy (people and businesses).
Here is a chart to take a look at:
What the above chart show is the history of depressions going back to about 1950. What I want you to see here is that depressions are not new and happen around every 6 to 10 years. It just so happens that we haven't really had one if you exclude the did from 2020 the Covid pandemic - meaning not since the 2008 financial crisis. Once again the point of the chart is to show you that depressions are nothing new and common. if you are above 50, you have lived through more than 10 of them and are a normal part of our economic cycle.
Supply and Demand 101
All economies have a supply side and a demand side. When demand rises and supply falls and prices increase. When demand falls, supply rises the prices fall too. Simple.
Right now what we are seeing is the demand side growing faster than the supply side can keep up with this demand. This causes prices to rise VERY rapidly. All of us are seeing this in our personal lives. Issues that are currently impacting the supply side of the economy are really the problem at the moment. But what is affecting it?
Issues that are currently impacting the supply side of the economy
Supply chains caused by the pandemic.
So in the above chart, you can see supply chain disruptions making a comeback. The chart shows the years 2019. You can see the Eurozone, The U.S., China, and emerging markets and you can see which markets were most disrupted. The scale at the left-hand side goes from negative 10 to about 80. What is pointed out is as we went into 2020 and 2021. (2022 is not on here but it continues to rise in the U.S. and is very disruptive in the supply chain perspective.) Let's add to that the below chart - "Inventory to Sales Ratios"-
What this show is that across retailers in total businesses is a decline in inventory over time and what you can see is going back to 1992, this is the lowest we have seen in the inventory to sales ratio.
So currently our supply cannot keep up with the economic demand. This has caused our economy to enter a state which economists refer to as "Over Hearing". Something you have probably heard on the news channels but didn't quite know what it means.
Issues currently impacting the supply side of the economy
- Lack of available workers "HELP WANTED". (I won't get into social welfare or the minimum wage in this thread.)
You have seen the "HELP WANTED" signs everywhere. It seems like every retailer or restaurant you go to has an issue with a lack of workers.
So what happened was recently we experienced what is known as "The Perfect Storm"- We had the impact, the pandemic, the stagnant population growth, low labor for participation, reduced immigration and that equaled soaring job openings.
So if you look up at the year 2017. you can see that there were 5.9 million unfulfilled job openings. Going forward to April of 2020, you can see that declined to 4.7 million but in February 2022 we are now at 11.3 million and rising. The labor supply is flat, and working population growth is griding to a halt with an annual average growth rate of just .02%
What are some other issues impacting the supply side of the economy?
- High fuel prices.
The gray areas you see in the chart above are depressionary periods and what we can see is that if we take a look back to the 1970s, we can see that there are both lows and highs in fuel prices. Most oftentimes, if the fuel price goes over $104 for Brent crude oil, typically a depression will follow or during the middle of a depression, as you can see from the chart and at the end, you can see that we are currently in that situation (actually a little bit further ahead). And what this leads to is -
High Inflation:
Certainly, a lot of us have heard this - inflation is the rate increase in prices over a given period of time but most do not really keep track of it. The above is a chart of inflation and what it is showing is the year-over-year percent change in the consumer price index (CPI) and it tracks consumer spending. What you can see is through the time period of 1970- 1980, there were high-interest rates and a period which was known as STAGFLATION. You can see that spike circle in yellow which represents massive inflation and hasn't been seen at that level of inflation till about right now. So 2 months ago, we see inflation increase by 8.3% on average but higher in many areas. So this is a rapid spike in inflation since the pandemic which was fed by the issues I covered above.
Inflation and DepressionS
So the above is a measure of CPI and what you can see when CPI spikes It almost always happens in a depressionary period o just before a depressionary period. You can see that we are spiking right now.
I talked about earlier that when low unemployment rates mean there is a shortage of available (or willing) workers to hire. When companies cannot find workers to hire they must increase wages in order to attract and keep workers. So let's take a look at this:
Above is a chart and as it says- " US wages for the lowest earners are growing at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis hit"
Now, this is a chart of monthly median wage growth by quartile and what we can see here is that the lowest quartile has had a significant spike in its wage growth. What we are seeing is massive wage growth and again, you always see these spikes in wage growth before a depressionary period. Just as now, you can see the slike in wage growth just before the 2008 financial crisis.
When workers are paid more money, they tend to dump that money into the economy (instead of paying off debt) by buying goods and services As seen with the Stimulus packages starting in 2020. This did not stimulate the economy but actually kept inflation high (supply and demand read above).
The chart above is not up to date but the closest I could find and serves my purposes fine as it shows us where we were pre-pandemic, to see exactly how much consumption is now taking place with goods, services, and total consumption. You can see the spike. You can clearly see the amount of consumption taking place in the USA.
Here is a chart on consumer spending. So you see the growth that started happening in 2012/2013 as things were progressing and moving forward at a fairly regular pace. Then you see an incredible dip in consumer spending during the pandemic due to such things as, lockdowns, lost jobs, and businesses going under. But now you see s sudden rapid spike that is not only back to normal but is getting even higher than ever!
So again, workers are getting paid more money and they going to dump that money into the economy by buying goods and services, as I said. This increased spending by consumers leads to an increase in demand for goods and services.
So it works like this:
Higher wages, lead to higher prices, higher prices lead to higher wages and higher wages lead back to higher prices. This is an unhealthy feedback look that ultimately contributes to hyperinflation. Not good at all.
WHAT IS QUANTITATIVE EASING (QE) AND IT'S IMPACT ON INTEREST RATES?
Quantitative Easing is what was put in place at the end of the last financial crisis and is in large part why we just experienced this massive move up in the equities and housing markets. What this is and why it occurs is when the Federal Reserve buys long-term securities in an effort to boost the economy, adding money to the money supply.
While increasing the money supply QE lowers long-term interest rates. So as the money supply is increased the interest rates are lowered. What it does is makes it easier for banks to loan and for people to borrow money. This in theory stimulates growth in the economy and is what the Fed has been doing for over a decade now.
So in addition to this, the Fed (also known as the central bank) controls these interest rates.
Lower interest rates encourage borrowing, money printing, and therefore expansion. But it also feeds inflation...
The above is a chart on the effect of increases on interest rates a from a personal level and also on an economic level.
Inflation is rising too fast!
Currently, the Fed is rapidly raising interest rates to fight inflation. Additionally, QE, since we have been experiencing since the financial crisis has been reversed and we are now participating in QT (Quantitative Tightening), which is the inverse of QE and is taking money out of the supply
On a personal level, this increases the cost of borrowing, it improves the return for savers thereby making cash more valuable. This creates higher mortgage rates, and higher interest payments which make it harder to finance a house, it increases the cost of bank loans such as personal and business loans and banks are more willing to lend because they will make more money but also reduces the confidence of borrowers and typically does.
In the economy, the currency will appreciate and that is why we are seeing the USD rising. This makes exports less competitive and imports cheaper. Again, no good in the long term.
What it will serve to do is lower inflation as we have raised interest rates but the economic growth will slow when we raise interest rates. Unemployment will typically rise and the government will see rising borrowing costs.
Currently, Jerome Powell (Chairman of the Fed) is trying to tip toe off the edge of a financial meltdown (depression).
His goal and thus the goal of the fed is to raise interest rates enough to stop the growth of inflation and at the same time, he cannot raise them too much, or else it will push our economy into a deflationary depression. This is what the economists called a "soft landing" and the fed calls a "happy ending".
This is the equivalent of walking one giant tightrope. Additionally, something to be taken note of is that except for the year 1994, all historical attempts to achieve a "soft landing" or "happy ending" have failed. So the desperate effort the fed is trying to do now historically has never worked.
What are some historically accurate predictions of depressions?
One of them is the Yield Curve Inversion as seen above.
When the Yield Curve inverts, it tends to mean that the bond market expects yields to be higher in the short term than in the long term. This is based on the Fed hiking rates to control inflation and then burning them back down after the inflation comes down.
So in the above chart, times when the Yield curve is inverted - the Yield Curve inverts when the blue line goes below the black line. What you see is the Yield Curve inversion almost always precedes a time of depression. The gray areas are times of depression. So as you can see inverting, depression, inverting, depression, and so on. Right now we are in a period of inversion, once again.
THE ISM PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (pmi)
The ISM purchasing managers index (PMI), shown above, is a way to measure the manufacturing in the U.S. Historically in a strong economy, the ISM PMI will have a value of over 50. If the value approaches 50, this shows a decline in manufacturing and likely a near-term depression.
So as you can see in the past when we had the tech boom and bust and we saw this like go below 50 and against during the 2008 depression. you see the slide from the pandemic but right now it is relatively stable so we have not yet seen the decline ins the ISM PMI. but it is starting to stagnate and I already talked about fuel prices. high fuel prices almost always precede a depression. One of the biggest consumer costs is transportation and there is a high demand for it, always. But when that cost becomes higher than food then this marks a huge, huge depression coming. Ask yourself if last month you spend more money on food or gas.
EMPLOYEMENT/UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Another historically accurate measure is employment rates.
When unemployment rates drop below the 5% make(red dotted line), it is a sign of a very strong economy. Typically. we have very strong economies that create bubbles in certain asset classes though they allow our economy to become imbalanced and that unemployment rate will do just before a depression so you can see by the chart that practically all dips occur just before a depression. And now we have dipped again past the threshold. We will go into q big depression.
THE VALUE OF DEPRESSIONS
So now let's talk about the value of depression.
One of the good things after the economy depresses from a massive uptick is a return to "fair" value. This gives investors such as you and me, the opportunity to own assets such as homes, equities, collectibles, really just about everything at a much lower cost basis than before the depression which gives investors much more room for capital appreciation, also known as - a movement to the upside. It gives us a lot more room for capital appreciation because we are buying when the price is low. And the objective is to hold the asset until the next bull run or inflationary period when we are able to participate in capital appreciation in our asset class (as I am doing now.)
The above chart is the S&P 500 index. The vertical likes are depressionary periods and you can see that at the end of the depressions or during the depressions are very good buying points for long term holds and you can see when you buy during these times you will always see Captial appreciation when given enough time. This is especially true of the housing market if buy a house and want to see its value appreciate to the upside.
So the economy is like most things - it seeks balance. Most understand that depressions can cause unemployment, financial losses, lower living standards, burdens on public finances as well as declines in a retirement fund, But with all that said, depressions also offer us some benefits:
- They rectify imbalances which clear the path for future growth.
- They end the miscalculation of money into certain asset classes (bubbles).
- They provide great opportunities for investors with long-term point of view.
WHAT ARE NOW AND WHAT TO WATCH
We have:
- Record low unemployment, record-high gas prices, record-high inflation, and are coming from record low-interest rates. We have also seen a bull market in equities and housing for the last 13 years, Lastly, in March 2022 we saw the Yield Curve invert.
WHAT WE DONT HAVE AND WHAT TO WATCH
- We don't know how high interest rates must go to stop inflation.
- We don't yet have a rising unemployment rate.
- We don't yet have bad company earnings.
In conclusion. I have given you a basic lesson on the evils of central banking how fragile and volatile they are, and how they manipulate our economy and play with interest rates for money they do not have and are the ones that actually cause depressions and inflation. They do it through fraud and deception. However, it is not their fault, it is yours. They are banking (pun intended) on your being too stupid to figure out how their tricks work.
In the next post, I will talk about alternative monetary, banking, and economic policies that are not only more robust to depression and inflation but more ethical and do not use currency or interest rate manipulation, and do not rely on statistics or mathematics to trick people.
